Sunday, January 12, 2014

2014 Golden Globe Predictions

Best Picture, Drama

12 Years a Slave
Captain Phillips

Will Win: 12 Years a Slave
Should Win: 12 Years a Slave
Look Out For: Gravity
Reasoning: Most-nominated of the bunch, 12 Years also comes into this with the most heat and should make that next step towards being the Oscar frontrunner.

Best Actress, Drama

Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Judi Dench, Philomena
Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
Kate Winslet, Labor Day

Will Win: Sandra Bullock
Should Win: Sandra Bullock
Look Out For: Cate Blanchett
Reasoning: Blanchett is still in good shape to make a run at the Oscar if she loses this, as many see her as a frontrunner for the big prize. Bullock is also more of an HFPA fave, and stars in a very popular movie.

Best Actor, Drama

Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
Idris Elba, Mandela
Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Robert Redford, All is Lost

Will Win: Tom Hanks
Should Win: Chiwetel Ejiofor
Look Out For: Chiwetel Ejiofor
Reasoning: This one is legitimately tough to call. The Globes could easily mount a sweep for 12 Years, but the Best Pic nom for Captain Phillips gives me pause, and makes me think they'll really go for Hanks -- especially that last scene. Part of me hopes Redford wins this, but that performance seems more nomination than win -- it doesn't have that one "actory" scene, which is nothing against it.

Best Picture, Musical/Comedy

American Hustle
Inside Llewyn Davis
The Wolf of Wall Street

Will Win: American Hustle
Should Win: Her
Look Out For: The Wolf of Wall Street
Reasoning: Hustle is the other nominations leader, and most of these movies are committing category fraud; they're all more dramedy than comedy (though I guess Llewyn Davis is getting counted as a Musical? Which might actually help it). Wolf of Wall Street is still waiting for its breakout moment, and the Globes have been pretty friendly to Scorsese, but Hustle just feels like the movie they're going to go for, putting it into the drivers' seat alongside 12 Years as we move into the Oscar noms.

Best Actress, Musical/Comedy

Amy Adams, American Hustle
Julie Delpy, Before Midnight
Greta Gerwig, Frances Ha
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Enough Said
Meryl Streep, August: Osage County

Will Win: Amy Adams
Should Win: Julie Delpy
Look Out For: Julia Louis-Dreyfus
Reasoning: If this was the Globes of five years ago, I'd be picking Julia Louis-Dreyfus to win here and in TV (for Veep). But Amy Adams has been getting nominated almost every year without an award to show for it yet. And she's the center of Hustle.

Best Actor, Musical/Comedy

Christian Bale, American Hustle
Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis
Joaquin Phoenix, Her

Will Win: Bruce Dern
Should Win: Leonardo DiCaprio
Look Out For: Oscar Isaac
Reasoning: Another very tough category to call. Dern has the career-defining work. DiCaprio has the career-best work. Isaac has the career-making work. And Bale is in the Best Picture frontrunner, while Phoenix is kind of a stealth player. I could legitimately see any of these performances winning, and would be okay with any of them winning. I'm going with Dern for a "career win," but Isaac gets bonus points from doing his own singing. That's always a draw.

Best Animated Feature

The Croods
Despicable Me 2

Will Win: Frozen
Should Win: Despicable Me 2
Look Out For: Despicable Me 2
Reasoning: Frozen has become something of a phenomenon recently, and that buzz should carry it here.

Best Foreign Language Film

Blue is the Warmest Color
The Great Beauty
The Hunt
The Past
The Wind Rises

Will Win: Blue is the Warmest Color
Should Win: The Great Beauty
Look Out For: The Wind Rises
Reasoning: Wind Rises is Miyazaki's swan song, and that's a mighty big reason to vote for it, but Blue has been talk of the globe since May and I can't see it losing this.

Best Supporting Actress

Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
June Squibb, Nebraska

Will Win: Jennifer Lawrence
Should Win: Lupita Nyong'o
Look Out For: Lupita Nyong'o
Reasoning: Jennifer Lawrence is still the Girl on Fire, as much as I'd really rather her not win. Nyong'o, Squibb, and Hawkins are all much worthier of this one.

Best Supporting Actor

Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
Daniel Bruhl, Rush
Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club

Will Win: Jared Leto
Should Win: Michael Fassbender
Look Out For: Bradley Cooper
Reasoning: Time to put the money where the buzz is: Leto's been the presumed Oscar frontrunner since DBC opened, so logic says he'll win here. I still think Fassbender or Cooper could win though, and I'd be particularly happy with the former.

Best Director, Motion Picture

Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips
Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
Alexander Payne, Nebraska
David O. Russell, American Hustle

Will Win: Alfonso Cuaron
Should Win: Alfonso Cuaron
Watch Out For: David O. Russell
Reasoning: I can see Cuaron, McQueen, or Russell winning this one for various reasons, but I think Cuaron's work on Gravity and the praise surrounding it is enough to predict a split from one of the Best Picture winners. Because Russell's been in the mix several times recently, I would pick him above McQueen here.

Best Screenplay, Motion Picture

Spike Jonze, Her
Bob Nelson, Nebraska
Jeff Pope and Steve Coogan, Nebraska
John Ridley, 12 Years a Slave
Eric Warrern Singer & David O. Russell, American Hustle

Will Win: American Hustle
Should Win: Her
Look Out For: Her
Reasoning: A screenplay win would be a nice consolation for Her, and I really can't figure out how much HFPA is going to go for American Hustle, but my gut says to pick it here.

Best Original Score

Alex Ebert, All is Lost
Alex Heffes, Mandela
Steven Price, Gravity
John Williams, The Book Thief
Hans Zimmer, 12 Years a Slave

Will Win: Gravity
Should Win: Gravity
Look Out For: 12 Years a Slave
Reasoning: The music is so much of Gravity, and a lot of these feel like weak nominees.

Best Original Song

"Atlas," Hunger Games: Catching Fire
"Let it Go," Frozen
"Ordinary Love," Mandela
"Please Mr. Kennedy," Inside Llewyn Davis
"Sweeter Than Fiction," One Chance

Will Win: "Let it Go"
Should Win: "Please Mr. Kennedy"
Look Out For: "Please Mr. Kennedy"
Reasoning: Frozen is on top of the world right now, but it would be pretty damn cool if "Mr. Kennedy" won this.

Best TV Series, Drama

Breaking Bad
Downton Abbey
The Good Wife
House of Cards
Masters of Sex

Will Win: Breaking Bad
Should Win: Breaking Bad
Look Out For: House of Cards?
Reasoning: It's Bad's year. Can anything really beat it?

Best Actress, TV Drama

Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife
Tatiana Maslany, Orphan Black
Taylor Schilling, Orange is the New Black
Kerry Washington, Scandal
Robin Wright, House of Cards

Will Win: Julianna Margulies
Should Win: Taylor Schilling
Look Out For: Taylor Schilling
Reasoning: The Good Wife has had a pretty great year and feels much more high-profile than Schilling or Wright, the only two I could see winning instead.

Best Actor, TV Drama

Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad
Live Schreiber, Ray Donovan
Michael Sheen, Masters of Sex
Kevin Spacey, House of Cards
James Spader, The Blacklist

Will Win: Bryan Cranston
Should Win: Bryan Cranston
Look Out For: Kevin Spacey?
Reasoning: Please. This isn't even close.

Best TV Series, Comedy/Musical

The Big Bang Theory
Brooklyn Nine-Nine
Modern Family
Parks and Rec

Will Win: Girls
Should Win: Brooklyn Nine-Nine
Look Out For: Modern Family
Reasoning: Ugh, I really don't like this lineup. Girls wins I guess? People like it. I don't know.

Best Actress, TV Comedy

Zooey Deschanel, New Girl
Lena Dunham, Girls
Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
Amy Poehler, Parks and Rec

Will Win: Julia Louis-Dreyfus
Should Win: Julia Louis-Dreyfus
Look Out For: Edie Falco
Reasoning: I just love Veep and think Louis-Dreyfus is perfection on it.

Best Actor, TV Comedy

Jason Bateman, Arrested Development
Don Cheadle, House of Lies
Michael J. Fox, The Michael J. Fox Show
Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory
Andy Samberg, Brooklyn Nine-Nine

Will Win: Michael J. Fox
Should Win: Jason Bateman
Look Out For: Jim Parsons
Reasoning: Although The Michael J. Fox Show is about the most vanilla sitcom imaginable, it feels like a performance--or rather, a star--the Globes would want to recognize. Jim Parsons is, for some reason, always a threat in this category. For my money though, Jason Bateman gave the most interesting performance, turning what was once the straight man of Arrested Development into a desperate schmuck.

Best TV Movie/Miniseries

American Horror Story: Coven
Behind the Candelabra
Dancing on the Edge
Top of the Lake
The White Queen

Will Win: Behind the Candelabra
Look Out For: Top of the Lake

Best Actress in a Miniseries/TV Movie

Helena Bonham Carter, Burton and Taylor
Rebecca Ferguson, The White Queen
Jessica Lange, American Horror Story: Coven
Helen Mirren, Phil Spector
Elisabeth Moss, Top of the Lake

Will Win: Jessica Lange
Look Out For: Elisabeth Moss

Best Actor in a Minseries/TV Movie

Matt Damon, Behind the Candelabra
Michael Douglas, Behind the Candelabra
Chiwetel Ejiofor, Dancing on the Edge
Idris Elba, Luther
Al Pacino, Phil Spector

Will Win: Michael Douglas
Look Out For: Chiwetel Ejiofor

Best Supporting Actress, Television Series

Jacqueline Bisset, Dancing on the Edge
Janet McTeer, The White Queen
Hayden Panettiere, Nashville
Monica Potter, Parenthood
Sofia Vergara, Modern Family

Will Win: Hayden Panettiere
Look Out For: Sofia Vergara
Reasoning: Blind pick.

Best Supporting Actor, Television Series

Josh Charles, The Good Wife
Rob Lowe, Behind the Candelabra
Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad
Corey Stoll, House of Cards
Jon Voight, Ray Donovan

Will Win: Aaron Paul
Should Win: Corey Stoll
Look Out For: Rob Lowe
Reasoning: Look, I love Aaron Paul, but the last 8 episodes of Breaking Bad gave him very little to do besides look really sad. I'd rather see Corey Stoll take this for his weighty, tragic role in House of Cards--the real soul of season one. Also, Rob Lowe's freaky-deaky role in Candelabra is just ripe for an award.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Glad to see you recognize who SHOULD have won best animated pic :P