Sunday, September 23, 2012

The Five-peat Cometh: 2012 Emmy predictions

I'm always terrible at predicting the Emmys, so have fun at seeing how many I miss, rather than how many I get right.

Best Comedy Series

The Big Bang Theory
Curb Your Enthusiasm
Modern Family
30 Rock
Will Win: Girls
Maybe Will Win: Modern Family
Should Win: 30 Rock
The Storyline: Modern Family has won this award the last two years, and while the Emmys love to repeat, but Family doesn't have the force it had those first two years. It's interesting that six nominations are split over HBO and three different networks, suggesting the Emmy voters really connected with what HBO was offering this year. Girls was a hot enough topic last year despite the polarity to bolster it here, even though I think you'd have to be a fool to not recognize how brilliant the past season of 30 Rock was.

Best Comedy Actor

Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory
Larry David, Curb Your Enthusiasm
Don Cheadle, House of Lies
Louis C.K., Louie
Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock
Jon Cryer, Two and a Half Men
Will Win: Louis C.K.
Maybe Will Win: Jon Cryer
Should Win: Louis C.K.
The Storyline: Louis C.K. is like a cult unto himself, and someone people love to prop up as the epitome of comedy. Whether that's the industry as well as the critics, I guess we'll see. Jon Cryer seems the next-likely to me, considering how he emerged from the Charlie Sheen debacle as "Men's" leading man. The big thing handicapping him is that the show is utterly not funny.

Best Comedy Actress

Lena Dunham, Girls
Melissa McCarthy, Mike & Molly
Zooey Deschanel, New Girl
Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie
Amy Poehler, Parks and Rec
Tina Fey, 30 Rock
Julia Louis-Dreyfus Veep
Will Win: Julia Louis-Dreyfus
Maybe Will Win: Amy Poehler
Should Win: Amy Poehler
The Storyline: I just don't get the feeling that Dunham will win here, despite my thinking "Girls" will win the Series award. Rather, it feels a better fit for Dreyfus, who has been a mainstay of this category for decades. And it goes with my thinking that they'll push more towards the cable shows than the network shows. Amy Poehler really deserves this win though; the fourth season of Parks and Rec really foregrounded her as the anchor and soul of the show.

Best Supporting Comedy Actor

Ed O'Neill, Modern Family
Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Modern Family
Ty Burrell, Modern Family
Eric Stonestreet, Modern Family
Max Greenfield, New Girl
Bill Hader, SNL
Will win: Ed O'Neill
Maybe Will Win: Ty Burrell
Should Win: Ty Burrell
The Storyline: I have a theory that they'll just gradually award everyone in the "Modern Family" cast one by one, so since O'Neill hasn't won yet, I'm picking him. If not, Burrell is the most consistent and funniest part of the show.

Best Supporting Comedy Actress

Mayim Bialik, The Big Bang Theory
Kathryn Joosten, Desperate Housewives
Julie Bowen, Modern Family
Sofia Vergara, Modern Family
Merritt Wever, Nurse Jackie
Kristen Wiig, SNL
Will Win: Sofia Vergara
Maybe Will Win: Kathryn Joosten
Should Win: Julie Bowen
The Storyline: See my above reasoning about awarding the whole "Modern Family" cast. Considering Joosten's passing though, I wouldn't be surprised to see a sweet, posthumous award for her body of work. It's hard to beat Julie Bowen's work on Modern Family though, especially against this lineup.

Best Directing for a Comedy Series

Robert B. Weide, Curb Your Enthusiasm, "Palestinian Chicken"
Lena Dunham, Girls, "She Did"
Jake Kasdan, New Girl, "Pilot"
Louis C.K., Louis, "Duckling"
Jason Winer, Modern Family, "Virgin Territory"
Steven Levitan, Modern Family, "Baby on Board"
Will Win: Louis C.K.
Maybe Will Win: Steven Levitan
Should Win: Louis C.K.
The Storyline: I feel like Louie has gotten to a point as a show where the Emmys will want to award it several times. They do love their Modern Family though, so watch out.

Best Writing for a Comedy Series

Louis C.K., Louie, "Pregnant"
Lena Dunham, Girls, "Pilot"
Amy Poehler, Parks and Rec, "The Debate"
Michael Schur, Parks and Rec, "Win, Lose, or Draw"
Chris McKenna, Community, "Remedial Chaos Theory"
Will Win: Lena Dunham
Maybe Will Win: Michael Schur
Should Win: Chris McKenna
The Storyline: It's hard to tell how much the Emmys like Parks and Rec -- it feels like it's grown in esteem over its run, making a win here a bit likely. I think it'd be more likely to see Dunham -- as a "new voice" of this category -- winning.

Best Drama Series

Boardwalk Empire
Breaking Bad
Downton Abbey
Game of Thrones
Mad Men
Will Win: Mad Men
Maybe Will Win: Homeland
Should Win: Mad Men
The Storyline: Mad Men is going for its fifth win in this category--one for every season. I often roll my eyes at how Emmy can pick the same thing year after year, but if there's ever a season Mad Men deserved it, it's this year. "The Other Woman" is a better episode than 90% of most shows' entire seasons. While Boardwalk and Breaking Bad have their fair share of devout followers -- as does Game of Thrones, though its second season is much weaker than the first -- if any show is going to beat Mad Men, I think it's the taut thriller Homeland.

Best Drama Actress

Glenn Close, Damages
Michelle Dockery, Downton Abbey
Julianna Marguiles, The Good Wife
Kathy Bates, Harry's Law
Claire Danes, Homeland
Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men
Will Win: Claire Danes
Maybe Will Win: Elisabeth Olsen
Should Win: Claire Dances
The Storyline: Poor Mad Men still hasn't won an acting award. Perennial nominee Moss will have to sit this one out; I can't fathom Danes losing this award.

Best Drama Actor

Steve Buscemi, Boardwalk Empire
Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad
Michael C. Hall, Dexter
Hugh Bonneville, Downton Abbey
Damian Lewis, Homeland
Jon Hamm, Mad Men
Will Win: Bryan Cranston
Maybe Will Win: Jon Hamm
Should Win: Jon Hamm
The Storyline: Bryan Cranston is going for his fourth Emmy for his performance in Walter White. But while I love the intensity he brings to Walt in season four, the character's depth has largely been relegated to the surface. Hamm, on the other hand, continues to evolve Draper, layering him in ways that continually catch me off guard. It's been five years. He deserves to win this one.

Best Supporting Drama Actress

Anna Gunn, Breaking Bad
Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey
Joanne Froggatt, Downton Abbey
Archie Panjabi, The Good Wife
Christine Baranski, The Good Wife
Christina Hendricks, Mad Men
Will Win: Christina Hendricks
Maybe Will Win: Maggie Smith
Should Win: Christina Hendricks
The Storyline: Hendricks is part of the "always a bridesmaid" ensemble of Mad Men -- nominated year in and year out, but no trophies to speak of. But despite her character getting plenty of great moments in the past, season five -- and particularly "The Other Woman" -- gives her the spotlight, and she runs away with it.

Best Supporting Drama Actor

Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad
Giancarlo Esposito, Breaking Bad
Brendan Coyle, Downton Abbey
Jim Carter, Downtown Abbey
Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones
Jared Harris, Mad Men
Will Win: Giancarlo Espositeo
Maybe Will Win: Jared Harris
Should Win: Giancarlo Esposito
The Storyline: Don't expect Dinklage to take this one again -- his role in season two of Thrones is much more diminished. Esposito, as the completely emotionless super-villain Gus Fring, gave Breaking Bad a tightly-wound and intense foil for Walt to battle, but it somehow feels like a complete performance. If Mad Men is going to get tons of love (it might) they could send off Jared Harris, who had a pretty spectacular season.

Best Directing for a Drama Series

Tim Van Patten, Boardwalk Empire, "To The Lost"
Vince Gilligan, Breaking Bad, "Face Off"
Brian Percival, Downton Abbey, "Episode 7"
Phil Abraham, Mad Men, "The Other Woman"
Michael Cuesta, Homeland, "Pilot"
Will Win: Michael Cuesta
Maybe Will Win: Vince Gilligan
Should Win: Phil Abraham
The Storyline: I've just got a big feeling about Homeland, and since I think Mad Men will win Drama Series, the show might get a push here for another big award. On the other hand, the taut suspense of Breaking Bad's season finale and the brilliant storytelling of that Mad Men episode are all worthy and likely contenders.

Best Writing for a Drama Series

Julian Fellowes, Downton Abbey, "Episode 7"
Semi Chellas and Matthew Weiner, Mad Men, "The Other Woman"
Andre Jacquemetton and Maria Jacquemetton, Mad Men, "Commissions and Fees"
Semi Chellas and Mathew Weiner, Mad Men, "Far Away Places
Alex Gansa, Howard Gordon, and Gideon Raff, Homeland, "Pilot"
Will Win: Mad Men - "The Other Woman"
Maybe Will Win: Downton Abbey
Should Win: Mad Men - "The Other Woman"
The Storyline: There is no storyline. "The Other Woman" may be the show's best episode. And that's saying something.

Best Miniseries or TV Movie

American Horror Story
Game Change
Hatfields & McCoys
Hemingway and Gellhorn
Will Win: Hatfields & McCoys
Maybe Will Win: American Horror Story
Should Win: American Horror Story
The Storyline: Hatfields and Horror Story have tons and tons of nominees. The only thing that really threatens either of them is Game Change. Where Horror Story is perhaps a bit more non-traditional, even a tad experimental for F/X, Hatfields is a more traditional miniseries that helps push History Channel into new territories.

Best Actress in a Miniseries or TV Movie

Connie Britton in American Horror Story
Julianne Moore in Game Change
Nicole Kidman, Hemingway and Gellhorn
Ashley Judd, Missing
Emma Thompson, The Song of Lunch
Will Win: Julianne Moore
Maybe Will Win: Connie Britton
Should Win: Shrug.
The Storyline: Looking at the list, Moore seems like the obvious choice. I'm not acquainted enough with these programs to say.

Best Actor in a Miniseries or TV Movie

Woody Harrelson, Game Change
Kevin Costner, Hatfields & McCoys
Bill Paxton, Hatfields & McCoys
Clive Owen, Hemingway and Gellhorn
Idris Elba, Luther
Benedict Cumberbatch, Sherlock
Will Win: Benedict Cumberbatch
Maybe Will Win: Idris Elba
Should Win: Benedict Cumberbatch
The Storyline: I can see any of these actors winning this. So...

Best Supporting Actress in a Miniseries or TV Movie

Sarah Paulson, Game Change
Frances Conroy, American Horror Story
Jessica Lange, American Horror Story
Judy Davis, Page Eight
Mare Winningham, Hatfield and McCoys
Will Win: Jessica Lange
Maybe Will Win: Sarah Paulson
Should Win: Jessica Lange

Best Supporting Actor in a Miniseries or TV Movie

Ed Harris, Game Change
Denis O'Hare, American Horror Story
David Strathairn, Hemingway and Gellhorn
Martin Freeman, Sherlock
Tom Berenger, Hatfields and McCoys
Will Win: Ed Harris
Maybe Will Win: Martin Freeman
Should Win: Martin Freeman

Best Directing in a Miniseries or TV Movie

Jay Roach, Game Change
Philip Kaufman, Hemingway and Gellhorn
Paul McGuigan, Sherlock
Kevin Reynolds, Hatfields & McCoys
Sam Miller, Luther
Will Win: Kevin Reynolds
Maybe Will Win: Jay Roach
Should Win: Shrug.

Best Writing in a Miniseries or TV Movie

Danny Strong, Game Change
Steven Moffat, Sherlock
Abi Morgan, The Hour
Neil Cross, Luther
Ted Mann, Ronald Parker and Bill Kerby, Hatfields & McCoys
Will Win: Danny Strong
Maybe Will Win: Steven Moffat
Should Win: Shrug.

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