Sunday, January 15, 2012

Golden Globe Predix

Best Picture, Drama

The Descendants
The Help
The Ides of March
War Horse

Will Win: The Descendants
Should Win: MoneyballWhy? In many ways, I can see this going to The Descendants, Hugo, or The Help in equal measure. The Globes do love Scorsese (more on that below), but in the top category I remain convinced that Payne's dramedy is about to break through the ceiling and become the potential spoiler for this year. And George Clooney's involved.

Best Picture, Comedy/Musical

The Artist
Midnight in Paris
My Week With Marilyn

Will Win:
The Artist
Should Win: Midnight in ParisWhy? The Artist is the horse to bet on, and its international status should play well to the HFPA. Still, I can't help escape the feeling that if a major upset will happen, it will be here. The HFPA also goes for Woody a lot. There's a fraction of a chance, but hey, The Artist has to stop short sometime. Right? Right?

Best Director

Woody Allen for Midnight in Paris
George Clooney for The Ides of March
Michel Hazanavicius for The Artist
Alexander Payne for The Descendants
Martin Scorsese for Hugo

Will Win: Martin Scorsese
Should Win: Martin Scorsese
Why? Michel Hazanavicius is the big frontrunner after a mildly shocking win at the Critics Choice on Thursday. But as much as I suspect the Globes will love The Artist, I can't help feel Director will be headed somewhere else. Mainly because of how textured and rich Scorsese's work in Hugo is, but partly because the HFPA has been very vocal about their support for him in the last decade. It's a down-to-the-wire category that could still go all over the place before the Oscars.

Best Actress, Drama

Glenn Close in Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis in The Help
Rooney Mara in The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Meryl Streep in The Iron Lady
Tilda Swinton in We Need to Talk About Kevin

Will Win: Viola Davis
Should Win: Tilda Swinton
Why? I think Viola Davis deserves this award, and even though the HFPA are star-whores, they've award Meryl Streep so many times that I think their love for the film (it has multiple nods - Iron Lady does not) will outweigh their Streep obsession. In reality though, these are five fine performances that deserve the award in their own ways. I'd give my vote to Swinton, who is the most revelatory and devastating.

Best Actor, Drama

George Clooney in The Descendants
Leonardio DiCaprio in J. Edgar
Michael Fassbender in Shame
Ryan Gosling in The Ides of March
Brad Pitt in Moneyball

Will Win: George Clooney
Should Win: Brad Pitt
Why? I've a feeling the Oscar is going to be a drag-down, knock-out fight between the two A-list superstars. George Clooney's film is in a better position than Pitt's, even though Pitt has received far less awards attention in his career and, I think at least, gives far and away the better performance.

Best Supporting Actor

Kenneth Branagh in My Week With Marilyn
Albert Brooks in Drive
Jonah Hill in Moneyball
Viggo Mortensen in A Dangerous Method
Christopher Plummer in Beginners

Will Win: Christopher Plummer
Should Win: Christopher Plummer
Why? I could see this going to Brooks or Plummer, with Mortensen as a super-upset (something the Globes aren't really famous for as of late). At the end of the day, Brooks gives a ferocious little performance, but Plummer towers over Beginners. In a career with very little recognition, he deserves this one.

Best Supporting Actress

Berenice Bejo in The Artist
Jessica Chastain in The Help
Janet McTeer in Albert Nobbs
Octavia Spencer in The Help
Shailene Woodley in The Descendants

Will Win: Jessica Chastain
Should Win: Shailene Woodley
Why? I've heard the rumbles for Octavia Spencer, but I don't buy it yet. Awarding Chastain lets the HFPA signal out an actress who had at least four (I could be miscounting) movies come out this year. She is the breakout story. On the other hand--if the Globes go wild for Descendants, you could hear Woodley's name, and if they fall out of their chairs for The Artist, you could hear Bejo.

Best Actress, Comedy

Jodie Foster in Carnage
Charlize Theron in Young Adult
Kristen Wiig in Bridesmaids
Michelle Williams in My Week With Marilyn
Kate Winslet in Carnage

Will Win: Michelle Williams
Should Win: (Abstaining)
Why? I still haven't seen Marilyn or Young Adult, the two frontrunners of this race, so I can't really comment. The Carnage performances cancel each other out, but if it wasn't for the heat behind Williams I could reasonably see Kristen Wiig winning this. The love for Bridesmaids right now is kind of astounding.

Best Actor, Comedy

Jean DuJardin in The Artist
Brendan Gleeson in The Guard
Joseph Gordon-Levitt in 50/50
Ryan Gosling in Crazy, Stupid, Love.
Owen Wilson in Midnight in Paris

Will Win:
Jean Dujardin
Should Win: Jean Dujardin
Why? This is not a great slate of nominees. Everyone in the organization will vote for Dujardin. Only conceivable upset is Gordon-Levitt, if they're in the mood to star-whore.       

Best Screenplay

Midnight in Paris
The Ides of March
The Artist
The Descendants

Will Win: The Descendants
Should Win: Moneyball
Why? This is a really tricky category. By the time we get to the Oscars, it will probably be Midnight vs. Artist in Original Screenplay and Descendants vs. Moneyball in Adapted. That's just where I think it's headed. So when you level the playing field, who comes out on top? All four of those have legitimate shots, but I'm giving the slight edge to Payne's script just because I expect it to clean up here. I'd love nothing more than for Moneyball to keep winning, though.

Best Foreign Language Film

A Separation (Iran)
The Flowers of War (China)
The Kid With a Bike (Belgium)
In the Land of Blood and Honey (USA)
The Skin I Live In (Spain)

Will Win:
A SeparationShould Win: (Abstaining)
Why? I've heard from a few of the bloggers that Angelina Jolie's Land of Blood and Honey could be a legitimate upset, but the love that's forming around A Separation just feels too great to deny.    

Best Original Score

The Artist
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
War Horse

Will Win: The Artist
Should Win: The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Why? The music of The Artist is pretty phenomenal, classic Hollywood stuff that (almost) perfectly narrates the movie (except for that scene. You know the one). But the music of Girl With the Dragon Tattoo so rethinks how we hear film music, how they work in a movie like that, and the kinds of emotion they emit. It's the year's towering achievement of composing, if you ask me.

Best Animated Feature

The Adventures of Tintin
Arthur Christmas
Cars 2
Puss in Boots

Will Win: RangoShould Win: Rango
Why? Because Tintin is so internationally-oriented, you might expect a win from the Foreign Press Association. But it's hard to get past how tepid it's been received State-side, whereas Rango has gone on to be a commercial and critical success. In a lineup that simply looks mediocre, Rango really stands out.

Best Original Song

"Hello Hello" from Gnomeo and Juliet
"Lay Your Head Down" from Albert Nobbs
"The Living Proof" from The Help
"The Keeper" from Machine Gun Preacher
"Masterpiece" from W.E.     

Will Win:
"The Living Proof"
Should Win: (Abstaining)
Why? The Help has more overall support than probably all of these films combined. I could see Madonna winning, though. Just because.

1 comment:

Paul Davies said...

First of all, I'm thrilled with what you thought about The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo. The books are phenomenal, and I thought Fincher did a great job with the film. The soundtrack is also unbelievable. Second, I completely agree with you in terms of how good Moneyball is. My two questions for you are: what makes a great sports movie? And what would your top ten sports movie list be?