Every year I always point to the Editing branch as a make-it-break-it deal - the race invariably narrows down to who is nominated for Best Editing. This year, all five editing nominees have a Pic nod. Up in the Air is not nominated (but it's already fallen behind, with a WGA win it will lock up Adapted Screenplay and get its recognition).
The Editors Guild announces tonight. The comedy award will (hopefully) go to A Serious Man or (500) Days of Summer, the animated will hopefully go Fantastic Mr. Fox (but will most likely go to Up), but the Drama award has me abuzz.
In 2006, when Departed beat Babel for this award, I knew the race was over. This year, Basterds is NOT nominated (and it lost the ADG to Holmes last night), and it seems to me we have another Hurt Locker/Avatar showdown. Although don't forget - District 9 is in the mix too, and is a wonderfully edited film. It takes the best part of both frontrunners - heightened pace in the latter and beautiful verite action in the former and excels terrifically. Were IT to win I could read that as either a blow to Avatar or a notch on Basterds' belt (lack of support for either THL or Avatar).
Of course, that's reading a lot into a pretty minor guild award, especially when we have yet to see the Writers. If THEY pick Hurt Locker in Original (keep in mind Basterds was disqualified), it could be close to over. If they pick A Serious Man, we're gearing into a brawl.
But let's say Avatar wins tonight, wins the Visual Effects Society, wins the Cinematographers Guild, wins Motion Picture Sound Editors - if it builds all that momentum from the techs, will that be enough to rocket it past the obvious acting/writing support for Hurt Locker/Basterds?