Turns out I was right. By my math, Avatar has been nommed in every Guild thus far, and probably will get a nomination in each one (except maybe Costume Design). The straw - for me - was drawn at a Writers Guild nod. Sure, the Writers Guild did everything they could to sabotage their guild award, disqualifying "Basterds," "Up," "White Ribbon," etc etc because of various discrepancies in their rules (that won't apply to Oscar), but to nominate Avatar for a writing award? Ludicrous.
Of course, as suspected, this race is still very much an all-out brawl between the four frontrunners. What's NOT expected is the massive showing of District 9 and Star Trek, two movies that may slide in the BP slots at the Oscars, or maybe even screenplay. But since "sci-fi" seems to be the buzzword right now, is that enough to keep Avatar's hype machine building? Not necessarily. I think IF Star Trek or District 9 get Picture nods alongside Avatar, the latter film won't win, as the sci-fi films will effectively split-vote.
This Friday are the Critics Choice awards. This Sunday are the Golden Globes.
By Monday morning, the picture of this race will start making a lot more sense. If one film - be it Avatar, Hurt Locker, Up in the Air - or one performer - be it Meryl Streep, George Clooney - can take both awards this weekend, it will help isolate the frontrunners. Additionally, any upsets could rocket someone into the lingering 5th slots on the Oscar nods.