Sunday, January 17, 2010

Golden Globes Predictions

While I'll NEVER say that the winner of the Globes equals the winner of the Oscar, this is the best race we've had probably since 2006 in terms of multiple films going head to head. In that sense, the Globes are helpful, but they're also a strange and sometimes very stupid organization. Nominees and predictions below

Best Picture, Drama

Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious
Up in the Air

Will Win: Up in the Air
Should Win: Inglourious Basterds

I actually don't feel comfortable predicting this category. In a lot of ways, I think Avatar will win this. In other ways, it's The Hurt Locker's to lose. But in terms of the small, well-rounded picture that they clearly loved, Up in the Air just feels like the correct choice. That said, were Avatar to win this award, it would be honing its sights on taking down the Oscar. Were Inglourious Basterds to win, there'd be a gigantic reshuffling of the proverbial deck. Frankly, this is the most exciting race of the night - which is as it should be.

Best Picture, Comedy/Musical

(500) Days of Summer
The Hangover
It's Complicated
Julie & Julia
Nine

Will Win: (500) Days of Summer
Should Win: (500) Days of Summer

Most years this would be a no-brainer vote for Nine - they love musicals, regardless of the quality. But Nine hasn't been anywhere since these nominations. It's dead in the water. (500) Days and The Hangover have hit shown up here and there, and the former seems the more admired.

Best Director

Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
James Cameron, Avatar
Clint Eastwood, Invictus
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds

Will Win: Kathryn Bigelow
Should Win: Kathryn Bigelow

In the deepest spots of my heart, I'm yearning for Tarantino to win this one. It'd be kind of amazing. And the man deserves it, but there seems to be no denying Bigelow's stunning direction. Jim Cameron is the spoiler. Someone's bound to give him an award sooner or later, and I'd rather it be the HFPA than the Academy.

Best Actor, Drama

Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Tobey Maguire, Brothers

Will Win: George Clooney
Should Win: George Clooney

Sorry Jeff Bridges, you got the Critics Choice award, but this one's for Clooney. One of them will win the SAG, and it'll be another all-out brawl for the Oscar.

Best Actress, Drama

Emily Blunt, The Young Victoria
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious

Will Win: Carey Mulligan
Should Win: Carey Mulligan

Look out for Sandra Bullock, who is apparently all of a sudden a good actress?? An Education didn't have much showing here, but that shouldn't take away from Mulligan's much-deserved win.

Best Actor, Musical/Comedy

Matt Damon, The Informant
Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine
Robert Downey Jr, Sherlock Holmes
Joseph Gordon-Levitt, (500) Days of Summer
Michael Stuhlbarg, A Serious Man

Will Win: Matt Damon
Should Win: Michael Stuhlbarg

Again, I'd normally give this to Nine in a heartbeat, but Matt Damon is double-nominated and they've never given him an award. About time, am I right?

Best Actress, Musical/Comedy

Sandra Bullock, The Proposal
Marion Cotillard, Nine
Julia Roberts, Duplicity
Meryl Streep, It's Complicated
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia

Will Win: Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
Should Win: Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia

Obvious.

Best Supporting Actpr

Matt Damon, Invictus
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds

Will Win: Christoph Waltz
Should Win: Christoph Waltz

Just keep the awards coming.

Best Supporting Actress

Penelope Cruz, Nine
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Mo'Nique, Precious
Julianne Moore, A Serious Man

Will Win: Mo'Nique
Should Win: Anna Kendrick

Mo'Nique's an awards steamroller. It's deserved, but I'd like to see some love at the Up in the Air ladies.

Best Screenplay

Neill Blomkamp, Teri Tatcell, District 9
Mark Boal, The Hurt Locker
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
Nancy Meyers, It's Complicated
Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner, Up in the Air

Will Win: Inglourious Basterds
Should Win: Inglourious Basterds

But don't be surprised if Up in the Air wins.

Best Animated Film

Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs
Coraline
Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Princess and the Frog
Up

Will Win: Up
Should Win: Fantastic Mr. Fox

Never deny Pixar. Then again, please award Wes Anderson!

Best Foreign Language Film

Baaria
Broken Embraces
The Maid
A Prophet
The White Ribbon

Will Win: The White Ribbon
Should Win: The White Ribbon

It could just as easily not, and they could give it to the more accessible Broken Embraces, but I like to think they have enough sense to at least award one major work of art per awards show.

Best Original Score

Up
The Informant
Avatar
A Single Man
Where the Wild Things Are

Will Win: Up
Should Win: Where the Wild Things Are

Up seems like an easy choice - Giacchino is very respected. But if Avatar wins this, I might lose it. James Horner gets no points for reusing samples of Troy and Titanic. It doesn't work that way.

Best Song

Cinema Italiano, Nine
I See You, Avatar
I Want to Come Home, Everybody's Fine
The Weary Kind, Crazy Heart
Winter, Brothers

Will Win: The Weary Kind
Should Win: The Weary Kind

Part of me thinks that awful Avatar song will win, but how could anyone with an ear think it's a good thing.


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