Wednesday, January 21, 2009

Final Oscar Nominations Predictions

Take these with a grain of salt.  Most of these categories seem pretty locked up, and I fully expect to see multiple movies with 9 or 10 nominations tomorrow morning because of the splurge of love that should be Slumdog Millionaire, The Dark Knight, and The Curious Case of Benjamin Button.  But this year, more than most years, I want the Academy to be BALLSY.  This race has turned into an anti-race since the Guilds rallied behind the same five films for no real reason.  I want some shake-ups.  I want Wall-E in for picture.  I want Frost/Nixon out.  I want The Wrestler to be EVERYWHERE, or even things like Rachel Getting Married or Doubt - movies that everyone has counted out of all but a few races.  Nominate someone really SURPRISING for Best Director.  Nominate Charlie Kaufman for Best Screenplay!  Nominate Australia for tons of techs, or Iron Man!  Nominate Let the Right One In for SOMETHING!  Don't forget Frozen River, The Visitor, Wendy and Lucy, and all the other independent movies that stood out among a fairly mediocre studio year.  Don't go insane for Clint.  Don't go insane for Clint.  Don't go insane for Clint.

By the way, for those new to my game, I usually do 4/5 in the big categories and 3/5 in the tech categories, mostly because I either over- or under-estimate a particular film.  I usually end up with an overall 67% percent with the nods (I think my career high was 75-78 in 05, but who's counting?)

Best Picture

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

The Dark Knight

Frost/Nixon

Milk

Slumdog Millionaire

Alt: The Reader

 

Best Director

Darren Aronofsky, The Wrestler

Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire

David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight

Gus Van Sant, Milk

Alt: Ron Howard

 

Best Actor

Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino

Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon

Sean Penn, Milk

Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

Alt: Richard Jenkins

 

Best Actress

Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married

Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky

Angelina Jolie, Changeling

Meryl Streep, Doubt

Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road 

Alt: Cate Blanchett

 

Best Supporting Actor

Josh Brolin, Milk

James Franco, Milk

Robert Downey, Jr., Tropic Thunder

Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt

Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight 

Alt: Dev Patel

 

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams, Doubt

Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona

Viola Davis, Doubt

Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler

Kate Winslet, The Reader

Alt: Tajari P. Henson

 

Best Original Screenplay 

Woody Allen, Vicky Cristina Barcelona

Dustin Lance Black, Milk

Thomas McCarthy, The Visitor

Robert D. Siegel, The Wrestler

Andrew Stanton, Wall-E

Alt: Joel and Ethan Coen

 

Best Adapted Screenplay 

Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog Millionaire

Peter Morgan, Frost/Nixon

Christopher Nolan and Jonathan Nolan, The Dark Knight

Eric Roth, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

John Patrick Shanley, Doubt

Alt: David Hare, The Reader

 

Best Animated Feature 

Kung Fu Panda

Wall-E

Waltz With Bashir 

Alt: Bolt

 

Best Documentary Feature

Encounters at the End of the World

Man on Wire

Pray the Devil Back to Hell

Standard Operating Procedure

Trouble the Water 

Alt: I.O.U.S.A.

 

Best Foreign Language Film

Der Baader Meinhof Komplex

The Class

Everlasting Moments

The Necessities of Life

Waltz With Bashir 

Alt: Revanche

 

Best Art Direction/Set Decoration

Changeling

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

The Dark Knight

Milk

Slumdog Millionaire 

Alt: Revolutionary Road

 

Best Cinematography 

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

The Dark Knight

Milk

The Reader

Slumdog Millionaire

Alt: The Reader

 

Best Costume Design

Australia

Changeling

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

The Duchess

Revolutionary Road 

Alt: The Reader

 

Best Film Editing 

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

The Dark Knight

Frost/Nixon

Iron Man

Slumdog Millionaire 

Alt: Australia

 

Best Makeup

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

The Dark Knight

Hellboy II: The Golden Army

Alt: Tropic Thunder

 

Best Original Score 

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

The Dark Knight

Slumdog Millionaire

Milk

Wall-E 

Alt: Frost/Nixon

 

Best Original Song 

“I Thought I Lost You” from Bolt

“Gran Torino” from Gran Torino

“Jai Ho” from Slumdog Millionaire

“Down to Earth” from Wall-E

“The Wrestler” from The Wrestler

Alt: Once in a Lifetime from Cadillac Records

 

Best Sound Mixing

The Dark Knight

Iron Man

Quantum of Solace

Slumdog Millionaire

Wall-E

Alt: Defiance

 

Best Sound Editing

Iron Man

The Dark Knight

Wall-E

Alt: Quantum of Solace

 

Best Visual Effects

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

The Dark Knight

Iron Man

 

Alt: Hellboy II: The Golden Army

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